Morning Comments July 29, 2019

Grain

Opening Calls:

Corn up 2-3

Beans up 1-3

Friday corn closed the lowest in 2 months when the September corn contract closed 4 cents lower, settling at $4.14 1/2, and the December contract was 3 cents lower closing at $4.24 1/2. For the week, the September contract lost 16 ¼, and December lost 11 1/4. Corn traded lower on Friday due to favorable weather conditions for pollination, lower prices in the Black Sea region and South America, and ethanol demand slowing with margins near (or below) break-even. Crop Conditions will be released this afternoon with the expectation of an increase in the good to excellent rating. Corn is trading higher this morning as it has moved into the oversold area and we may see a short-covering rally with month-end approaching.

The August soybean contract closed 3/4 of a cent higher Friday, settling at $8.88 1/4, and November was 1 1/4 higher at $9.01. For the week, the August and November contracts closed 18 1/4 lower. The bean market is trading higher this morning with optimism on some new Chinese sales and continued questions on the U.S. supply side. An interesting side note is that new crop soybean sales stand at only 1.2 mil bu, the smallest short position since 2014. 

With the introduction of MFP, it’s a good time to figure the payment into your marketing plan, because in the end with large South America supply, burdensome carryout’s, and lack of Chinese demand, even with a short crop, it’s tough to be a bull.