Morning Comments July 27, 2021

Grain Bins

The weekly crop conditions report was out yesterday afternoon; crop ratings in both corn and soybeans were expected to be unchanged from last week and instead we saw ratings drop (maps below). Corn showed a drop of 1% with North Dakota falling 8% (!) since last week while Minnesota dropped 4% and Iowa dropped 3%. Meanwhile, the southern and eastern parts of the belt all saw improvements, but they weren’t enough to keep the total U.S. from sliding. Soybeans also faded 2% lower, with only 58% of the crop being rated in the good-to-excellent categories. 58% is the second lowest-rated soybean crop since 2012. Of course, beans are made in August, so the jury is still out on bean yields. All this info had our markets fired up on the open last night and they are still stronger this morning.

As for weather, the heat and dryness continue to punish the NW part of the belt. You can see it in the crop condition ratings already (and maybe even more so next week) and there is some chatter out there now that North Dakota yields could dip down below 110bpa. The balance of this week doesn’t look to give much reprieve, but the extended forecasts look “mixed” with less heat and at least a few more chances for a shot of rain.

Overall, it appears that even though our market is whipping back and forth depending on the latest weather and demand outlooks,nwe are still stuck in a bit of a trading range, albeit a wide one. With the next big USDA report coming out in a few weeks (August 12th), unless something drastic changes weather-wise we may stay in this range until then. That report of course will be the one to give us a fresh look at the S&D, including updated yield projections.

Currently

Corn is 7 to 10 cents higher

Soybeans are 15 to 20 cents higher

July 27 Map 1 July 27 Map 2 July 27 Map 3 July 27 Map 4