Morning Comments July 20, 2021

Sillouette Sunset Location Rail

Our markets all traded higher last night, recovering from yesterday’s rough trade which was caused mostly by bearish outside markets (crude was down over $5 and stocks were down 2% on Covid, inflation, and Chinese relationship concerns) that simply weighed on our prices all day. 

Yesterday afternoon the crop ratings were released, and while corn and soybeans hung in there for us (good-to-excellent ratings on corn were unchanged while soybeans improved 1%), the Spring wheat ratings got pounded once again. Maps below. 

As far as our forecasts go, they still appear hot and dry and I’ve seen a few weather outlooks predicting that if the two-week forecasts materialize, it could have a -2.5bpa impact on soybeans yields. Not ideal. In other weather news, when talking about that second season corn crop in Brazil, we’ve spent most of the year discussing drought and how that has adversely affected that crop (and how that will effect corn export picture for the U.S. next year). Well, things aren’t getting better down there as freezing temps spread across parts of Paraná and Mato Grosso, likely doing more damage to some of that late-planted corn that is not yet ready to harvest. Trust me, while there is plenty to talk about regarding U.S. weather, for the moment there sure is a lot of chatter going on about Brazil. 

Currently

Corn is 12 to 15 cents higher

Soybeans are 18 to 22 cents higher

July 20 Map 1 July 20 Map 2 July 20 Map 3 July 20 Map 4 July 20 Map 5