Morning Comments July 2, 2021

Bin sunset harvest

Feeding off the momentum from the last few days, grain markets are inching higher as we continue to digest the information the USDA gave us on Wednesday. Again, the theme from the June quarterly stocks and acreage report was not enough and it’s very important that mother nature provides us with all the support she can muster to solve that problem. As of the latest 6–10-day weather forecast, I think she’d rather take off early for the long holiday weekend (see maps below, more heat and dryness expected). 

It’s important to note that corn belt states with the largest increases in corn acres planted this year (ND, SD, MN) are all experiencing a variety of drought ranging from abnormal to exceptional. Growing conditions in those states are going to play a huge roll in U.S. corn production this year and the market will be watching intently. By the way, those states play a vital role in the U.S. soybean export program too, making their production potential that much more important. Acres are already lower than expected, any unneeded crop stress will continue to create concern and with concern comes volatility. 

One last thing. Even after considering the bullish story that’s moving our markets this week, today’s trade could be pretty boring. With the long holiday weekend swiftly approaching, traders may be checked out already. I think the action is coming on Tuesday’s hard open next week after three full days without markets trading. Might be a double dose of fireworks headed our way!

Currently

Corn: unchanged

Beans: 10 to 13 cents higher

July 2 Map 1
July 2 Map 2