Morning Comments July 16, 2021

July Soybeans close up 1

Our futures markets are trading higher this morning as weather concerns are keeping a bid under the market. Looking at the 6–10- and 8–14-day forecasts (maps below), which now cover almost the entire balance of July, the majority of the corn belt will remain below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. Not ideal for the areas that are already dry. By this time next week those same maps will start to extend into August and if the weather pattern doesn’t change, risk premium could/should be added. Welcome to another “weather weekend."

Other than that, it’s really pretty quiet. The NOPA crush report was out yesterday (telling us how many beans we crushed in the U.S. in June), and the numbers were pretty disappointing. Soybeans crushed was well below the average trade guess, weighing on soybean prices. This report was another sign that “high prices cure high prices” as the U.S. crushers found a way to slow their plants down last month instead of paying big money for soybeans. Also interesting in that report– soybean oil stocks were reported to be at their lowest level in 8 months; this confirms that when it comes to soy crush margins today across the U.S., oil is for sure the driver.

Currently

Corn is 4 to 6 cents higher

Soybeans are 12 to 15 cents higher

July 16 map 1 July 16 map 2 July 16 map 3 July 16 map 4