Morning Comments July 15, 2021

Grain Corn Pile Closeup

After seeing strength throughout the day yesterday (18c higher on corn and 31c higher on beans) our markets were a touch lower overnight last night as rains fell across parts of the belt. There’s still quite the difference out there between growing conditions to the South and East (above average potential) and the tough conditions up in the NW belt and Northern plains (below average potential). The USDA has had this corn crop pegged at a trendline yield number of 179.5bpa for a while now and we are still a month away from seeing the big crop tours start to roll out across the Midwest to determine whether that is high, low or spot on. 

All of the attention has been on the drought-stricken areas (and rightfully so), while the near ideal conditions in other parts of the corn belt seem to be quietly under the radar. Nobody knows how it will shake out yet, but if you are a producer it’s probably best to put the weather maps down, stop reading these comments and go take a look at your own fields. Keep in mind, selling relatively high-priced harvest corn in July when your crops look good really isn’t the worst idea in the world.

So, for today, let’s watch for changes in the weather and keep an eye on the export picture. We have heard some rumblings the past few days about additional late summer soybean business out of the U.S. Gulf (where will we find the beans?) and we have also heard rumors regarding Argentina corn that has been sold into Brazil. This ARG/BRZ story is important as it could confirm for the trade that the Brazilian crop production truly is as bad as feared, no matter what the USDA prints.

Currently

Corn is steady to a couple cents lower

Soybeans are steady to a couple cents higher

July 15 Map 1
July 15 Map 2