Morning Comments July 13, 2021

July corn

Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report showed some stabilization in our crop ratings, with U.S. corn good-to-excellent ratings improving a percentage point up to 65% G/E, while soybeans held steady at 58% G/E. You can see in the maps below that Iowa improved 4% in corn and 6% in beans. In general, this was seen as bearish to the market, and the market started off lower overnight. As for the weather? Well, forecasts look favorable for this week but the 6–10- and 8–14-day forecasts still look drier, which appears to be keeping a bid under this market. Our prices overnight started to turn higher just before 7 a.m. and are still trading positive as I type this.

Yesterday morning’s S&D report from the USDA didn’t hold many surprises specific to corn/soybeans (leaving yields unchanged and carry-outs generally in line with trade guesses), but they did slash the spring wheat crop more than expected which shocked the trade and seemed to give the entire marketplace a reason to rally. This of course is thanks to the drought in the Dakotas, which makes a bullish trader wonder, if wheat production is that poor, what will corn/soybean production look like up there? Looking at the crop ratings below, they need a weather pattern change and they need it quickly.

The outside markets are giving us a bit of a headwind this morning (namely a stronger $U.S. dollar) but once again, the weather forecasts will remain front and center for our little ag space. It is safe to say that there are still plenty of questions on U.S. corn and soybean yields and we won’t see another S&D from the USDA until August.

Currently

Corn is 2 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans are 6 to 8 cents higher

July 13 map 1 July 13 map 2