Morning Comments July 12, 2021

Soybeans Farnhamville

We have our next installment of USDA data today as the July Supply & Demand report will be released at 11 a.m. sharp. This is our first look at next year’s numbers while using the planted acreage data from June 30th, which should provide a little more understanding regarding next year’s balance sheet.

We now know there’s been an acreage increase, but will they show enough increases in demand to offset these increases in production? Will they start to adjust yields, particularly for corn in the drought-stricken northwest and will the potentially strong yields in the eastern corn belt be enough to off-set them? Will they continue to lower the Brazilian corn crop, in turn increasing export corn demand out of the U.S.? Plenty of questions will start to be answered today, stay tuned at 11 a.m. to learn more. Here are the trade estimates for some of the key numbers:

Average trade estimates, vs last month’s report:

  • Corn
    • Production: 15.107b bushels (was 14.990b bushels in June report)
    • Yield: 178.7 bpa (was 179.5 bpa in June report)
    • 20/21 Carryout: 1.071b bushels (was 1.107b bushels in June report)
    • 21/22 Carryout: 1.361b bushels (was 1.357b bushels in June report)
  • Soybeans
    • Production: 4.392b bushels (was 4.405b bushels in June report)
    • Yield: 50.6bpa (was 50.8bpa in June report)
    • 20/21 Carryout: 135m bushels (was 135m bushels in June report)
    • 21/22 Carryout: 147m bushels (was 155m bushels in June report)

Ahead of the report, our markets are trading a bit higher this morning as the long-term forecasts still have issues, showing hot/dry weather returning in particular for the NW part of the corn belt. At the same time, there were beneficial weekend rains that fell (also wrapped in hail in a few areas) which has the market thinking that our next round of crop ratings will show improvements in good-to-excellent ratings (due out later this afternoon). That is all well and good, but weather markets tend to trade forecasts and the current 6–10- and 8–14-day maps (shown below) are still giving the trade reasons to be concerned.

Currently

Corn is 2 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher

July 12 Map 1 July 12 Map July 12 Map 3 July 12 Map 4