Morning Comments, July 1, 2020

July corn

Opening Calls:

Corn: 6 to 8 higher

Beans: 6 to 7 higher

Yesterday the corn market closed sharply higher due to the trade being surprised by the USDA’s acreage report that showed a decrease of 5 million planted acres (97 million to now 92 million) from the March planting intentions report. NASS also reported that total U.S. crop acres were 7.6 million acres less than the March intentions. This has left traders wondering what happened between March 1 when the intentions data was collected and early June when the actual planting data was gathered. With the data that was reported yesterday, it is estimated that the new corn carry out would be somewhere around 2.8 billion bushels instead of the 3.3 billion we saw previously. Although that is helpful, there will still be plenty of corn to go around with the lack of ethanol demand that we have seen. It’s likely we’ll see more fund short-covering today especially with a three-day weekend just ahead and some concern about a dry/hot period next week when the crop will just be beginning to pollinate in many areas. It would be smart to reward the market after these last three days to finish old crop sales and start on new crop sales if you haven’t done so already.

The soybean market closed higher yesterday too, but the news for the soybean market was not quite as impactful as the corn news. The planted acreage came in 83.83 million acres, about 300,000 acres higher than the March intentions, but around 1 million acres less than the average trade estimate. This morning, the bean market is trading higher as well as traders continue to build a little more weather premium into the soybean price and take into account a planted acreage that was not as large as expected. Additionally, almost all of the technical indicators turned higher after yesterday’s trade and that is likely bringing in some buyers to the market as well.

With market rallies like this, a great strategy is to have offer contracts in place to take the risk off of having to constantly watch the markets. Get in touch with you GMA or local Landus location today to get those in and working.

The next USDA report is a week from Friday, July 10, when they will issue their latest WASDE.

This Friday is a holiday for the Board of Trade and Landus locations. The Board will also close a little early on Thursday, at 12:05 p.m.