Morning Comments July 1, 2019

Soybeans Clean

Opening Calls:

Corn: Down 3 to 4

Soybeans: Up 3 to 4

The corn market closed sharply lower Friday with traders completely caught off guard by the USDA’s planted acres report which showed that farmer’s planted acres only dropped around 1 million acres from the March 29th intentions report. The USDA reported what farmers were estimated to have planted as of June 1st. With weather throughout most of June not being conducive to planting progress, many are skeptical about the USDA’s numbers from Friday. The USDA did announce Friday afternoon that they would be resurveying most of the Corn Belt states, and we will likely see these updated numbers in the August crop report. The one positive that was mostly ignored, is that the stocks came in lower than the trade had anticipated with a little higher feed usage mostly accounting for the decline.

The soybean market rallied Friday. The USDA’s acreage intentions report was a bullish surprise and the fact that stocks came in a little lower than expected was supportive as well. There were some news in the trade that argued that the lower stocks were the result of uncounted beans. It was speculated to be the result of transportation issues with beans slow to move down the river to the Gulf. Those bean will eventually be found in the September report. 

This afternoon we will see the release of the USDA’s weekly progress report and crop condition rating. The USDA is done publishing planting progress, so we are on our own there with most in the trade believing that given last week’s planting progress (or lack thereof) that there are around 7 million acres that will go to prevent plant.

The September dollar index is trading 42 points higher this morning at around 96.10.

This morning the August crude oil contract is trading around $1.70 higher. The August contract is trading just above the $60.00 level.