Morning Comments January 29, 2021

Agronomy Early Corn

Corn is on track for a 6th consecutive monthly higher close, the longest period since 2008. Export interest continues almost daily, as food inflation fears are becoming a world reality, and planting delays due to excessive rainfall in Brazil (which also is delaying soybean harvest) are pushing back some expected relief in world corn supplies. We have already seen snap announcements this week of export sales to China and there may be more today. These will be part of next week’s announced weekly export sales on Thurs am….it will be a very big number. 

Weekly export inspections were out yesterday morning and the large amount of outstanding sales (yet to ship) will be key to watch in the upcoming months. Open corn sales stand at 1.17Bln bu (up 253% from last year) and beans stand at 450Mln bu (up 220% from last year). These are huge numbers and would seem to verify that USDA is light on their current export estimates, particularly for corn. Total corn commitments (YTD shipments + open sales) are at 75% of USDA forecast already, highest % this time of year since 1996. In the next few weeks, the soybean export program will slow down and corn loadings will ramp up. 

Outside influences are jittery with the Robinhood trading platform controversy….will this spill over into other areas? Remember managed money is still long a lot of grain, with handsome profit in those positions….will equity need to be liquidated to move elsewhere? Strange times indeed. 

Just a moment ago, another LARGE corn export sales announced to China (see paragraph 1). 

2.1MMT corn sales announced….that’s 75Mln bushels. Corn is going higher. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: up 7-10c

Beans: up 3-5c