Morning Comments January 29, 2019

Opening calls:

Corn:  1/2 to 1 lower

Beans:  3 -5 lower



The USDA announced yesterday that they plan to release the January 11th production, stocks and seedings report on February 8th when they are scheduled to release their updated U.S. and world balance sheets. They also announced plans to extend the farm aid deadline until February 14th. The trade expectation is that when the USDA reports do come out, they will show a small decline in the U.S. 2018 corn yield, a slight reduction in harvested acres and confirmation of good export demand, although that export demand may be offset somewhat by disappointing ethanol demand for corn. The trade is looking for a carryout of between 1.650 and 1.700 billion bushels (last estimate was 1.781 bil bu). Traders are anxious to see how the U.S./China trade negotiations go when they get underway tomorrow with Vice Premier Liu He set to meet with USTR Lighthizer.


The soybean market was lower yesterday with some profit taking and a rain event over the weekend in Brazil pushing prices lower, although prices did work up off their lows to only close modestly lower. The weakness in the energy and the equity markets also spilled over into the bean market and the weekly export inspections were below expectations – neither of pieces of news gave the funds much reason to be buyers of beans.


The March dollar index is trading either side of steady this morning at around 95.43.  This morning the March crude oil contract is trading around $0.50 higher. The March contract is trading just below the $52.50 level.


Have a good day and stay safe.