Overnight markets lower to start off this week, a departure from the past several weeks. Weekly COT report Friday afternoon confirmed managed money record large long corn position at 435,000 contracts. Their soybean long position was trimmed back a touch to 158,000 contracts. Look for markets to remain volatile and choppy until the trade gets a better feel on actual ending stocks. Most of the trade believes exports will be higher that last USDA numbers, particularly on corn….and that actual ending stocks will be more like 1.3Bln corn and 110Mln on the beans. Both incredibly tight and must ensure additional acreage and good yields this year.
South American has seen weather improve with some recent rains, but remains highly variable by area. Argentine truckers began their strike over the weekend. Palm oil has taken a recent price dive after reaching multi-year high in December, this due to concerns about slowing Chinese demand. US soy and ethanol crush margins continue to be pressured.
Corn: 2-3c lower
Beans: 15-20c lower