Morning Comments January 12, 2021

Sillouette Sunset Location Rail

Much anticipated WASDE report day is finally here. Overnight markets slightly higher on fairly light volume. Average trade estimates for ending stocks are 1.62Bln corn and 136Mln beans, as increases to demand are expected in both. Additionally, small yield declines are also projected for both. Quarterly grain stocks as of Dec1 are also being reported today, so there are many areas where we could see surprise numbers from USDA. Current prices are already trading a moderately bullish report. 

So expect some market volatility in price action today post-report. Would be an ideal day to have grain offer contracts working above the market in case we get a short-lived spike in prices. 

Other than pre-report position squaring, news is on the light side this morning. China has been inquiring about corn and bean prices this week, so may have some additional trade confirmations later today or tomorrow. Turkey bought 3 optional origin corn cargos yesterday, will likely be US origin. US corn remains the most competitive on the world stage until May. Many end users who have taken the approach to be spot 30-day buyers are regretting that strategy, as these higher prices and inverses are likely to be here for awhile until we either increase supply or ration away some demand. 

Opening calls:

Corn: steady to 2c higher

Beans: 3-5c higher