Morning Comments February 9, 2021

Field1

Markets surged sharply higher yesterday due to heavy fund-buying ahead of today’s USDA supply/demand report. Current price levels are predisposing a bullish report today; if we disappoint, we could see a quick sell-off. Expectations are for corn exports to be increased to 200Mln bu and ending stocks to fall to 1.35Bln bu. Soybean exports are also expected to increase to 30Mln bu and ending stocks to shrink to 110Mln bu. 

Weekly export inspections out yesterday were at 62Mln corn and 66Mln beans, which are large numbers for both and combined show just how large and deep these export programs are out of the US.

The polar vortex air mass is causing some river ice problems in Illinois, which will slow movement. Some spot cases of basis improvements due to weather are slowing truck logistics as well. 

Grain markets are feeling a little overbought, but these are markets that players are reluctant to sell until we see evidence of demand rationing. There is no clear signal of that yet. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: steady to up 2c

Beans: up 8-10c