Morning Comments February 5, 2021

Soybean Field Sunshine

Markets are in the green this morning due to strength in energy prices and more rainfall in Brazil. The OPEC decision this week to extend oil output cuts through April has rallied crude oil to $65/BL, which has also lent support to other energies including ethanol and corn. The Brazil soybean harvest remains delayed, with the top producing state of Mato Grosso being the most impacted. Only 25% of Brazil’s bean crop had been harvested as of the end of last week according to AgRural, the slowest pace in over a decade. Some crop losses are surely occurring, and high moisture and mold will be a quality concern. Additional heavy rainfall is forecasted for the next several days. 

Reminder of USDA reports this month: The WASDE supply/demand report next Tuesday, March 9, and the USDA quarterly grain stocks & intended acreage on Wednesday, March 31. It is believed that the market is expecting corn exports to be adjusted higher next week by 50-100Mln, resulting in ending stocks declining by the same amount. Despite two consecutive weeks of poor corn export sales reports, the weekly inspections (loadings) have been very solid and will likely be over 60Mln bu per week for the next 8-10 weeks. 

Wheat prices have sold off this week as analysts increased crop size potential in Russia and Ukraine, and reports that freeze damage in Kansas was not as bad as expected from the arctic blast in mid-February. A record large wheat crop is expected in Australia. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: up 3-5c

Beans: up 3-5c