Morning Comments February 5, 2021

Acre Edge Field Sign in Soybean field vf

Average trade guesses for next Tuesday are for ending stocks to decrease on corn to 1.36Bln bu (1.55Bln last month) and beans to 119Mln bu (140Mln last month). Both estimated declines are due to increases in exports, which sales/shipment data supports. Markets are anticipatory, so it is very likely we are already trading price levels that reflect some level of reduced ending stocks from last month. 

China is now estimated to buy 20MMT of corn this marketing year, compared to 7.6MMT last year. That would place them as the world’s largest corn importer; they have had that position regarding soybeans for years. The resulting increase to all commodity prices is stoking fears of food inflation worldwide. 

High prices are asking for more supply. So, Northern Hemisphere, your table is set. Aside from monthly supply/demand reports, the March 31st quarterly grain stocks/acreage report will be a big one this year. That, along with early spring planting weather, will set the price tone for April and May. 

Arctic air will descend on the Central US for the next week and has provided strong support for the energy complex. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: steady

Beans: up 2-4c