Morning Comments February 19, 2021

Springanhydrous

The USDA Ag Outlook forum estimated acreage this year at 92Mln corn and 90Mln soybeans, which would be the largest corn + soybean total ever. They also released supply/demand balance sheets this morning, the 2021/2022 ending stocks are projected at 1.55Bln corn and 145Mln beans. It is believed that the trade will move on from these numbers pretty quickly, no surprises there. 

Weekly export sales just came out this morning with pedestrian numbers, corn 39.3Mln and beans 16.8Mln, both well below last week. Additional sales announcements have been very quiet this past week, in part due to China being on holiday. The outstanding sales book remains very large at 1.4Bln corn and 337Mln beans, so export corridors will remain busy. The EIA weekly ethanol statistics were out yesterday with lower production and higher stocks than the week prior. Production was at 0.911MBPD and stocks were at 24.297MBLS. We can expect to see significant production declines in next week’s numbers due to the natural gas shortages this week. 

Farmers and ranchers in the southern plains are still dealing with devastation, as power was knocked out to more than 4Mln people in Texas alone. Natural gas production in the Permian field came to a complete standstill. Temperatures will moderate by this weekend, then damage assessments will start rolling in for refineries, pipelines, etc. 

New crop prices are near contract highs for both corn and beans, as the fight for acreage is definitely on, not only in the U.S., but worldwide. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: up 1-2c

Beans: up 3-5c