Morning Comments February 10, 2021

Corn Emergence 2

The USDA took a cautious approach with the monthly supply/demand report yesterday. Exports on corn were increased 50Mln, to 2.6Bln, but this was much less than trade expectations. Soybean exports were also increased 20Mln, to 2.25Bln. Ending stocks were lowered the same amount on each, as all other numbers remained unchanged. The corn export number could eventually move to the 2.8–2.9Bln range, but for now the USDA elected to further observe actual export inspections to verify that large open sales will indeed be shipped. Interestingly, they did raise Chinese corn import estimates by 6MMT, but did not show that coming from the US. 

Taken at face value, this report was disappointing for the bulls. Believing the numbers or not, the market will trade them. We will most likely set prices back here to test support levels. The USDA baseline projections will be out later this month and will provide a longer-term view. 

Bitterly cold temps will continue to settle in over the next week and will further delay all modes of logistics. Heavy icing on the Illinois river will be a major issue by early next week. 

Circle March 31st on your calendars– it’s always an important USDA report date but will be even more so this year. Quarterly grain stocks and intended acreage numbers out that day will guide price direction heading into planting season. Prices are begging for additional acreage on multiple commodities. 

Opening Calls:

Corn: down 7-10c

Beans: down 14-17c