Morning Comments Dec. 24, 2018

Merry Christmas Eve!

 

Markets will close today at 12:05 and resume Wednesday at 8:30. This morning we’re seeing markets open with corn and soybeans down 3-4 cents. Our locations are open today and will be closed Christmas Day.

 

Acting White House Chief if Staff Mulvaney told reporters Sunday that he is expecting the partial government shutdown to be ongoing through the first of the new year as President Trump insists on funding for a border wall and “refuses to go along to get along”.  Mulvaney stayed that the shout down could likely go through the 28th into new the Congress.

 

Funds continue to sell Crude Oil, adding to their long position in corn (largest since May), and even on beans.

 

There is an ongoing expectation in the corn market that there will be an increase in Chinese buying, but the trade is getting tired of waiting for this and that the USDA will significantly lower the national yield on their January report. There is also the matter of the South American crop progressing nicely, which is limiting the bullish tone for corn. Normally, when there is little positive news the path of least resistance is down which we are experiencing today.

 

White House Trade Advisor Navarro came out after the close Friday and said that “time is running short for a U.S./China trade deal and that China was trying to steal our future.” These comments pushed the Dow lower and certainly didn’t do anything for the spirits of the soybean bulls. Bullish news is hard to come by as we inch closer to the end of the year, unless we see substantial Chinese buying or some serious weather problems for South America, funds are likely to start winding down their year. Farmers are not expected to be big sellers over the next couple weeks unless there are some major rallies that capture their interest.

 

You can still listen to the podcast featuring USDA trade expert, Jason Hafemeister from last week as he talked about the impact on trade deals with China, Mexico and Japan on the ag market. https://landuscooperativeexperience.podbean.com/e/usda-trade-counselor-hafemeister-talks-exports-at-annual-meeting-landus-cooperative-experience-podcast-dec-20-2018/

 

 

Have a great day and wonderful Christmas with friends and family!