Morning Comments August 5, 2021

Soybean

The soybean market felt a little heavy once again overnight as small rain showers moved across the corn belt. It feels like we are in a holding pattern until one week from today when the USDA graces us with their fresh Crop Production and Supply & Demand reports. Until they give us the next yield estimate, the weather doesn’t seem obvious enough yet to give us price direction one way or the other. Although, when looking at the 6-10- and 8-14-day forecasts (below) it does appear that some of the stressed out crops in the NW part of the belt will undergo another round of warmer, drier weather. We will see.

­­­­­­­­­­­­­Other than that, we are starting to see the cash markets firm up in certain parts of the U.S. as the end-users do their best to find (just enough) corn/soybeans to get them to day 1 of harvest. With carry-outs as low as they are, you will find some dots on the map that can do this with relative ease, while others will have a really tough time finding the bushels. Basis of course will do the work to smooth that out, attempting to move grain from areas of surplus to areas of deficit.

Currently

Corn is 2 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans are 2 to 5 cents lower

Aug 5 Map 1 Aug 5 Map 2 Aug 5 Map 3 Aug 5 Map 4