Morning Comments August 4, 2021

Grain bins dryer

Our corn and soybean markets quietly worked a little higher overnight as soybeans attempted to recover from yesterday’s rough trade, where we saw November soybeans close over 30c lower after improving crop ratings were released and the weather maps showed better chances for rains in the near future.

With the August S&D report out from the USDA next week (will be released Thursday 8/12), we will start to see more private estimates come out ahead of time. StoneX, for example, released their numbers yesterday, they have U.S. corn yield pegged at 176.9 bpa (below the most recent USDA estimate of 179.5 bpa) and they are calling the U.S. soybean yield to be 50.0 bpa (below the most recent USDA estimate of 50.8 bpa). This USDA report next week could be the last big supply-side piece of fundamental news we see before harvest (other than major shifts in the weather). That will be a big one.

So overall for today our markets look to start off mixed, with corn staying range-bound while soybeans try to rebound a bit after the sell-off yesterday. For better or worse, soybeans seem to be taking their cues from the ever-changing weather forecasts for August which at the moment don’t appear overly threatening, but we aren’t out of the woods yet.

Currently

Corn is steady/mixed

Soybeans are 2 to 4 cents higher

August 4 Map 1
August 4 Map 2