Morning Comments August 31, 2021

Harvest 4

Once again, our corn/soybean markets tried to rally early on in the night session only to get drug down as the night wore on and are trading lower as I type this. A couple things are driving it, first, the weather continues to improve with rains moving through the heart of the corn belt this morning. Second, the market was expecting a slight reduction in crop ratings yesterday afternoon and instead they ended up unchanged (U.S. data shown below). As I mentioned last week, it is normal for crop ratings to slide lower this time of year as the crop finishes, which makes seeing an uptick in good-to-excellent ratings a little more surprising.

Lastly, the lost export capacity at some of the gulf elevators due to damage from Hurricane Ida is weighing on the trade. Some of it appears short term, and some of it appears to have a long road to recovery in front of it. With no power yet (and the river closed) it will take some time to sort through it all. There are still companies trying to assess the damage, but after looking at the pictures, as I saw one analyst say yesterday: they look absolutely heartbreaking.

So overall for today, I’d like to call the market mixed, but I’m afraid we may spend the majority of the day trading lower. Between the weather, the crop ratings, and the hurricane damage there just isn’t a lot to be positive about today.

If you did want to find a bullish story… you have to squint pretty hard but you could remind yourself that the S&D tells us we will need every bushel we can get this Fall and some of the heavy rains and flash flooding across the U,S, (in particular down south) aren’t helping that cause. There’s always a chance for some flash export sales to hit the news wires this morning also as there is work to do on that front; we will see. Sounds like there weren’t many offers for vessels out of the gulf yesterday, as you can imagine.

Currently

Corn is 3 to 5 cents lower

Soybeans are 4 to 7 cents lower

August 31