Morning Comments August 3, 2021

July corn

Overnight grains are under some pressure as the market digests yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report. While corn conditions continue to decline, moving another 2% lower to 62% G/E, soybeans caught the market off guard posting a 2% increase at 60% G/E. Spring wheat conditions even moved higher a whopping 1%. All three numbers are well below ratings from the same week last year and their respective five-year averages. Be that as it may, we seem to be content with how the crops are maturing this morning. 

Homing in on soybeans, some in the market are expecting cuts to the demand side of this month’s USDA report. Crush margins find themselves under pressure as plants struggle to clear products and our exports of soybeans and soybean meal have slowed as we reach the end of the crop year. While slight cuts to our already incredibly low ending stocks number don’t change the soybean story, any revisions that make that number grow will grab the attention of the bears in the market. Combine that with an improving August forecast and you can begin to paint a weaker picture. We’re in need of some fresh news. Whether it’s China stepping in to buy more new crop beans or a change in the forecast, something to get the bulls excited. 

Currently:

Corn down 4-5

Beans down 20-25

Aug 3 Map 1 Aug 3 Map 2 Aug 3 Map 3 Aug 3 Map 4