Morning Comments August 28, 2020

Adobe Stock 249416327 Corn Waiting for Harvest

Opening Calls:

Corn: Steady to down 1

Beans: up 5

Good morning. Corn closed higher yesterday even though there are prospects of an oversupply. Dry conditions in some areas should only have a modest impact on the yield, even though Iowa’s total production has been significantly reduced. News that China purchased 29 million bu. of U.S. corn didn’t move the market much, either. The market traded steady to lower overnight as it appears the crop will be large enough for the carryout to grow from last year, even with the losses from the wind storm. The market will continue to sort out if and how much more premium will be added to the price from the current levels.

Soybeans also closed higher yesterday as fund buying pushed the November contract to a new 7 month high. A dry weather forecast and strong export sales were the primary drivers of the price. The market is trading higher again this morning as the dry weather in August has trimmed the yield prospects for the bean crop. This could bring the national average down to 50 bu./acre. China’s aggressive buying is also bringing support to the market. There is a little rain in the forecast but that might be coming a little too late to help much. The trade anticipates another decline in crop conditions with Monday’s report. 

Here is a link to a very good article/presentation/podcast from Iowa State professor Charlie Hurburgh on the impacts of not only the Derecho, but also the drought in SW Iowa that is steadily moving North and East.

We’re also lined up to interview Dr. Hurburgh next week for our Bull Bear Banter podcast. Stay tuned for details about next week. Here's the link to our podcast so you can subscribe (which means you get a notification when we have a new episode available).