Morning Comments August 27, 2020

Bradford latimer plot harvest

Opening Calls:

Corn: up 3

Beans: up 10

The corn bid stabilized yesterday as traders consider if enough weather premium has been put into the market. The corn belt continues to see hot/dry conditions. Seasonally, prices go lower into fall but crop conditions ratings and other problems have supported the market. It appears ending stocks could come in from 2.5- 2.6 bil bu, which is above last years 2.1 bil bu. Yields are also expected to be at or above 180 bu./acre nationally. Prices are pretty close to last year at this time, so all things considered, it would appear the market has factored in all the damage. Corn is trading higher again this morning with anticipation of a solid export sales report. News of more damage due to extreme heat and dry conditions are also widespread. Most estimates still show the U.S. corn carryout being more than adequate, even with loss from the storms and the hot/dry conditions. From a “technical” or chart perspective, it appears that December corn could go about another 5 cents higher, around $3.62 before hitting resistance. 

Soybeans closed higher yesterday as the USDA announced another sale of 15 mil bu. to China. The dry conditions are also providing a push, and if the rains in the Midwest don’t materialize, we could see even further strength. The market is trading higher again this morning as November beans take out the next area of resistance. The forecast is still showing hot/dry conditions for the short-term. There is a chance of rain across the corn belt over the next 7 days. The concern is that this rain is coming too late to help the dry areas. The trade is expecting crop conditions to decline again on the next report Monday afternoon. 

Now would be a good time to put in some offers for New Crop sales of corn and beans. 

Don't forget to register for our Crop Tour Results Webinar on Sept. 2:

Corn and soybeans across 26 counties were surveyed. Find out how derecho damage is impacting regional yields.