Morning Comments August 27, 2019

Scouting Harvest 9

Opening Calls:

Corn: Steady to 1 lower

Beans: 6 to 8 lower

Weekly export inspections for corn came in at 639,000 mt, in line with trade estimates of 500-800,000 mt. There is just one week left in the 2018/19 marketing year and total corn exports stand at 1.842 bil bu, down 378 mil bu or 17%. It appears that U.S. corn exports will likely see another downward adjustment in the September WASDE report. South American corn is now offered into January at 15 to 40 cents below U.S. Gulf origin, so the competition for export sales remains stiff. The corn market is trading a bit lower this morning. The improvement in the crop condition rating was a minor negative surprise, but the market focus is still going to remain on the fact that there are nearly 20 million acres of corn in the northern production areas that have not reached the dent stage. The market is going to concentrate on frost for the next 6 weeks and react to forecasts that reach out into late September/early October. 

Corn Crop Condition rating (% rated good/excellent) National: 57% vs. 56% last week and 68% last year 

Iowa: 65% vs. 65% last week 

Illinois: 49% vs. 42% last week 

Nebraska: 74% vs. 74% last week

Minnesota: 55% vs. 55% last week 

Indiana: 32% vs. 32% last week

Weekly export inspections came in at 962,000 mt near the top end of trade expectations which ran from 700,000 mt to 1.1 mmt. With one week left in the 2018/19 marketing year, bean exports stand at 1.633 bil bu, down 407 mil bu or 20%. There is an expectation that the USDA will lower their export projections once again in the September WASDE report. This morning the bean market is trading lower after the crop condition rating came in better than the trade had expected. There is a lot of concern that the soybean crop will not reach its maximum potential because of its immaturity and that fear should be supportive on breaks. The attention of the market is going to continue to be on the length of the 2019 growing season. 

Soybean Crop Condition rating (% rated good/excellent) National: 55% vs. 53% last week and 66% last year 

Iowa: 52% vs. 51% last week 

Illinois: 50% vs. 40% last week 

Minnesota: 60% vs. 60% last week 

North Dakota: 62% vs. 63% last week 

Indiana: 33% vs. 33% last week