Morning Comments August 24, 2021

Harvest gif

Flipping on the screens this morning, you will see soybeans are up double digits to start the day (which also happened yesterday if you remember, but that didn’t last as they closed up only 2c). The crop ratings were released yesterday afternoon (maps below) and the good-to-excellent ratings continue to slide. This is a little concerning, of course, to the market as beans are in their key development period but we also have to remember that this is normal. As our corn/soybean crops dry down and finish the year out, the ratings will mean less and less. After all, it won’t be long until we start watching these reports for “harvest progress” instead of crop ratings.

Yesterday was the first day in what felt like a long time where we DIDN’T get news of additional new crop soybean export sales. Hopes of course are for additional Chinese demand to pop up on the news wire, there were rumors yesterday suggesting that they were in the market for another 4-5 cargoes. We need to see these soybean export sales finish the year strong to hit some of the large projections we have in front of us for demand next year. We will see what today brings.

So overall for today, we look to start higher thanks mostly to declining crop ratings. However, with additional rains in the forecast, these gains may be capped for the time being. The outside markets could also end up a positive factor; there are signs that this could be a “risk on” week, anticipating the Fed meeting at Jackson Hole and also with fresh COVID optimism, due in part to the Pfizer vaccine gaining full FDA approval. 

Currently

Corn is 2 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans are 12 to 15 cents higher

Aug 24 Map 1
Aug 24 Map 2