Morning Comments August 19, 2021

Corn closeup

We’re witnessing a dreary start to the day in the commodity markets. Both corn and beans are trending lower due to Pro Farmer Tour yield estimates that peg Illinois and Iowa ahead of last year’s pace. This was generally anticipated for the state of Illinois due to the regular rain events they experience during the growing season. However, it is a bit of a shock to find Iowa’s corn yield estimates and pod counts higher than a year ago. We’re all too aware of our challenges this year in Iowa. Maybe GMO’s are just that good? Maybe they picked the garden spots? Who knows. What I do know is that the market doesn’t view a friendly Iowa yield estimate as bullish.

What else is hampering the markets today? You guessed it, weather. Please take a look at the seven-day precipitation forecast below. Much needed rains to finish out the soybean growing season are expected in North and South Dakota, southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. Of course, forecasts can change, but when the market sees that the problem spots are getting help, it’s not very bullish either. Hopefully, we get some fresh export sale announcements this morning to put some support back into the soybean complex.

Currently:

Corn down 4-7

Beans down 12-18

Aug 19 Map 1 Aug 19 Map 2 Aug 19 Map 3