Morning Comments August 18, 2021

Soybeans2

Markets are mixed to start off the day as we continue to try and evaluate good old supply and demand. On the supply side of things, the Pro Farmer Tour rolled through Nebraska and Indiana yesterday posting corn yields of 182.35 and 193.5, respectively. Both numbers are well above last year’s Pro Farmer estimates and their 3-year tour averages. While corn looks to be in good shape, soybean pod counts were actually lower than last year's numbers in both states by 40-80 pods. I should note that we’ve seen results for South Dakota too, and they are lack luster. Corn yield is estimated at 151.45 (28bpa lower than last year) and pod counts were roughly 300 pods lower than last year. As the saying goes, beans are made in August, BUT we are getting closer and closer to September 1st and rain chances are beginning to dwindle (see updated NOAA maps below). 

The demand side of the market is a little trickier. While we’ve seen steady export sales reported in the last 7-10 days, purchase volumes are light and many in the trade speculate China has a lot more soybeans to buy. Each day we get another ‘flash sale”, it will be viewed as feed for the bulls, but if we slip a few days in a row, we could witness some profit taking and weakness in our markets. Soybean processing is also under some pressure due to Monday’s NOPA crush report stating soybean oil stocks rose higher last month while actual soybeans crushed slipped lower. This puts a little pressure on crush margins and has the trade a bit uneasy about taking the next step higher – only adding to the mixed tone of the day.

Currently:

Corn up 1-2

Beans mixed

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