Morning Comments, August 04, 2020

Harvest 4

Opening Calls:

Corn: 2 Lower

Beans: 4 to 5 lower 

Corn Crop Condition Rating (% rated good/excellent)

National: 72% vs. 72% last week and 57% last year

Iowa: 73% vs. 77% last week

Illinois: 76% vs. 74% last week

Nebraska: 77% vs. 75% last week

Minnesota: 85% vs. 84% last week

Indiana: 67% vs. 65% last week

The corn market had small increases in most places other than at home. At 73%, Iowa is still ahead of its historical 5-year pace. Many around the trade are projecting 180+ bu./acre this fall including StoneX (formerly FCStone) setting their sights on a 182.5 average. With the bulky supply that exists, the corn market's ability to rally is limited. Seasonally, we have already passed the summer highs of recent years. Summer 2020 gasoline demand is running at an 18% decrease amid the pandemic as well.

Soybean Crop Condition Rating (% rated good/excellent)

National: 73% vs. 72% last week and 54% last year

Iowa: 73% vs. 76% last week

Illinois: 76% vs. 76% last week

Minnesota: 84% vs. 84% last week

North Dakota: 63% vs. 63% last week

Indiana: 68% vs. 65% last week

Iowa crop condition ratings took a hit on beans as well with the majority of the Midwest staying flat or managing small increases. Bearish factors include the possibility of a record yield and a slowing of Chinese demand as of late. Bulls have some ammo in that Chinese demand could still come on board as it has at certain times this year, the dollar has weakened even further, and foreign exportable supplies are running short. Late August weather and Chinese demand will likely tell the story of fall bean prices.

Next Wednesday the USDA will issue another WASDE report. We expect changes to them to update their yields as well as tweak some of the demand side estimates. Please let us know if there is anything you’d like to get sold prior to the report and we can discuss putting an offer in for you.