Morning Comments April 9, 2019

Soybeans Farnhamville

Grain overnight:

Corn down 1 to 2

Beans up 1 to 2


Good morning!


The USDA’s first planting progress report out yesterday afternoon showed that 2% of the U.S. corn crop is planted. That was in line with trade expectations and also in line with the average progress at this time of year. So far, the trade has not been too concerned about the wet weather in the forecast with most feeling that it is a little early to be too concerned about planting delays. If the wet weather persists into May buying interest may pick up in the corn market. U.S. corn export shipments of 1.035 mmt (40.8 mil bu) were at the bottom end of market expectations of 1.0-1.3 mmt (39.4-51.2 mil bu), slipping from the previous week’s 1.259 mmt (49.6 mil bu) and remain substantially below year ago exports this week of 1.940 mmt (76.4 mil bu). Last year’s shipments were in the midst of a historically strong stretch prompted by last year’s South American crop shortfall. Corn export shipments over the five weeks averaged 38.6 mil.


U.S. soybean export shipments last week of 888,000 mt (32.6 mil bu) were at the top end of market expectations of 600-900,000 mt (22.0-33.1 mil bu), were up a bit from the previous week’s 732,000 mt (26.9 mil bu) and were notably above last year’s same-week exports of 381,000 mt (14.0 mil bu). Over the last six weeks, soybean exports have averaged 31.0 mil bu, exactly in line with the roughly 31.3 mil bu/week average it is estimated that will be needed in order to for the USDA’s 1.875 bil bu export projection to be met.


The June dollar index is trading 10 points lower this morning at around 96.56. This morning the May crude oil contract is trading around $0.30 higher.


WASDE report out at 11:00 AM today.


PLEASE NOTE: Our grain policy has changed effective April 1st. The change is in regard to free time for a delivery. For any new delivery started on or after April 1st, you will have 15 days to make a decision about disposition. These 15 days will also apply to the amount of time allowed for averaging loads on that delivery. On day 16, any open contracts will be filled and the balance of the grain will be automatically placed on open storage unless other arrangements have been made by the 15th day. This change will help the cooperative be more efficient transferring grain throughout the year, and especially during harvest