Morning Comments April 29, 2020

Johndeere Planting 51

Opening Calls:

Corn: 1 to 2 better

Beans 3 to 4 better

Corn is trading higher this morning but within a very narrow range as May gets ready to come off the board. Yesterday the May contract again traded to the $3.01 level but not below that which is a support level from 2016. This could indicate that we have found a bottom in the corn market. Funds have built up nearly an estimated 200,000 contract net overall short into the 2020 spring planting season, but that’s still barely halfway to their record net short position. The EIA’s weekly ethanol production and stocks report will be out this morning and modest declines in production are expected since additional plants have been shut down over the past week. Ethanol stocks are expected to build once again despite the decline in production. Corn is trading a little higher this morning, but not with much momentum. The dollar is weaker, crude oil is trading higher and the equity markets are trading higher and the strength in those markets may be supportive this morning.

The soybean market worked its way lower yesterday on the lack of new Chinese export news and weakness in the grain markets overall. The meal market was once again the leader on the downside. Soybean planting progress has been ahead of last year and the five-year average as well. Beans are trading higher this morning, but lack of demand is likely going to limit rallies as South American exports are projected to be 16 million tons this week.

Rains were scattered through the central and eastern corn belt over the past 24 hours, heaviest in southern Illinois southward into the Delta. The 6-10 day forecast looks drier today, with a more variable outlook during the 11-15 day time frame. Dry conditions continue in Brazilian safrinha corn areas over the next 5-6 days, with rains projected during the middle of next week to at least somewhat ease dryness stress there. Argentine outlooks are running drier going forward to aid harvest after some heavy weekend rains caused delays.