Morning Comments April 20, 2021

Corn Emergence 2

Our markets are popping higher this morning with nearby soybean futures now at their highest level since June of 2014! We saw fund-buying interest show up in both corn and soybeans last night for all of the same reasons we’ve been talking about for a while now: the forecast for Brazil remains dry and we still have a slow start to the 2021 planting season.

Speaking of planting, we had our weekly planting progress report out yesterday afternoon (maps below). In that report, U.S. corn jumped from 4% planted last week to 8% planted this week while soybeans showed up as 3% planted (this is the first time they’ve been reported). Both of these are in line with our five-year average for this date, but it feels like the trade is wanting more. “Average” may not be enough.

Lastly, in news overnight, Brazil has suspended import tariffs on corn, soybeans, meal, and oil throughout the end of the year. This effort to slow down food inflation in their country is likely to benefit U.S. producers. Brazil’s second season corn crop has been in question of course for a while now with the dry weather; this move seems to confirm ideas that their crop continues to shrink as they approach harvest. This situation in general puts more weight on the U.S. planting season as U.S. corn should remain in high demand throughout the balance of the year.

Currently

Corn is 3 to 6 cents higher

Soybeans are 15 to 20 cents higher

April 20 Map 1
April 20 Map 2