Morning Comments April 19, 2021

Springanhydrous

We are starting a new week’s conversation today with more of the same: weather! The forecasts from Friday to today really don’t look a whole lot different, still dry in Brazil and still cold in the U.S. with snow in the forecast and freeze warnings throughout the belt. Temperatures do start to warm back up this weekend, but for the balance of April at least, we appear to stay “below normal”. 6-10- and 8-14-day maps below.

Yes, it is still plenty early for our crops here in the U.S. to get planted okay, but it goes without saying that many in the trade were hoping for a MUCH better start. This cold stretch of weather has everyone a little nervous, and these nervous feelings can be easily seen when looking at corn futures. While old crop corn tested out recent highs on the chart last night, the December corn contract made new highs (again)! Until this crop gets planted, a little risk premium should exist under our markets.

This afternoon (after the markets close) the USDA will release their weekly planting progress report; this will be the first one of the year for soybeans. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them show that 10% or more of the corn crop is planted with maybe a percentage point or two of soybeans in the ground. 

Currently:

Corn is 6 to 9 cents higher

Soybeans are 7 to 12 cents higher

April 19 Map 1
April 19 Map 2