USDA September WASDE Report 2017

Another Tuesday and another Supply & Demand update from the USDA. Going against what many in the trade believed to be an adjustment lower on yields, the USDA actually increased yields for both corn and soybeans. The average trade guess for corn yield was about 168 (vs. 169.5 last month). USDA estimates corn yield to be 169.9 bu/acre this year. Trade guesses for soybean yield averaged about 48.8 bu/acre (vs. 49.4 last month). USDA estimates soybean yield to be 49.9 bu/acre.

 

State-by-state corn yield changes had Indiana dropping 2 bu, Nebraska dropping 2 bu, and MN & IA both dropping 1 bu. Illinois improved by 1 bu, MO, ND, and OH all increased by 2 bu, and SD & OK saw a 5 bu bump. Soybean state yields had MN & NE dropping by 2 bu. Indiana, IA, and OH increased by 1 bu, KS jumped by 2 bu, and SD increased by 5 bu.

 

These are still only estimates, but early indications from the fields indicate good yields. There are a few concerns surrounding soybean crop conditions in the Mississippi Delta & SE U.S., but the market is currently “comfortable” with our crop potential. Given today’s production estimates and using 16/17 ending stock #’s, 17/18 will post the 2nd largest total corn supply on record (right behind 16/17). Corn carryout for 17/18 is sitting at 2.335 bln bushels, only 15 mln bushel less than last year (15 grain piles or about 35 110 car unit trains). Soybean ending stocks for 17/18 are healthy at 475 mln bu (anything north of 400 mln bu. will keep the market “comfortable”).

 

Dec Corn currently down 9c, Mar down 9c

Nov Soybeans currently down 14c, Jan down 14c

 

Have a good afternoon.

 

INTL FCStone USDA Crop Report Summary: