Morning Comments September 13, 2017

Opening Calls:

Corn up 3 to 4

Beans 5 to 6

 

Good morning!

 

The market is trading higher this morning after being caught off guard once again by another increase in the yield estimates by the USDA. The IL corn yield was increased by 1 bu/acre, SD was up 5 bu/acre, and ND up 3. Yields were also increased across the Southern US with record yields posted for many of those states. Several different states were increased for soybeans as well.

 

The old crop corn carryout was reduced by 20 million bushels, putting it at 2.350 billion bushels. Total corn production came in 31 million bushels higher at 14.184, and the USDA did make small changes to demand by lowering the corn used for ethanol but left their export estimate unchanged.

 

The U.S. soybean production is at a record large 4.43 billion bushels, which is up 120 mil bu from last year. The old crop balance sheet for soybeans showed an increase in their crush estimate, and a much needed increase in their export estimate. Ultimately, the combination of reduced imports and increased exports offset the increase in production, leaving the 17/18 carryout unchanged at 475 mil bu.

 

It is encouraging to see both the corn and beans closed well of the lows seen yesterday, and continued to improve in the overnight.

 

The dollar is trading slightly lower this morning at 91.83, while crude oil is trading higher.

 

Thank you for your business!